Telegraph Blogs : Business : Ambrose Evans-Pritchard : October 2007

Telegraph Blogs : Business : Ambrose Evans-Pritchard : October 2007: "The sky has already fallen Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 25 Oct 2007 at 12:36 Tags: Economics, Business, Goldman Sachs, us dollar, Subprime market, credit crunch, Global markets, Currencies If you are a bear, you must accept that you will always be wrong in polite society, and you will continue to be wrong all the way down to the bottom of recession. That is the cross that bears must bear. Night sky It's gone, whatever sceptical colleagues may say Over the last three months we have seen a rolling collapse of speculative debt and real estate across half the global economy, yet friends still come over to my desk at the Telegraph, with that maddening look of commiseration on their faces, and jab: “so when is the sky going to fall then, eh”? Well, excuse me. The sky has fallen. The median price of new homes in the US has crashed from a peak of $262,6000 in March to $238,000 in September. (Commerce Department). This is a 9pc drop nationwide. The slide in existing homes is catching up. They have come down from $229,200 to $211,700 in three months. (National Association of Realtors). Yet we have barely begun to see the default hurricane as Teaser rates contracted in 2005 and 2006 on floating mortgages kick up venomously over the winter, "

TRADING PLACES

TRADING PLACES: "TRADING PLACES TRADER: SAC MADE ME TAKE FEMALE HORMONES By PAUL THARP and RODDY BOYD CLICK TO ENLARGE CLICK TO ENLARGE PrintEmailDigg ItRedditPermalinkStory Bottom October 11, 2007 -- One of the world's richest and most secretive hedge funds is telling its traders to swallow female hormones to trade better, a lawsuit claims. The bizarre twist on how to get wealthy fast swept across Wall Street's trading desks amid ribald laughter and groans after revelations yesterday of the shocking claims involving SAC Capital. The firm, a powerful $10 billion hedge fund, is run by superstar trader Steven A. Cohen, one of Wall Street's most prolific players who regularly takes home $500 million a year. It was alleged that one of Cohen's top bosses at SAC chided traders for being too aggressive - and that they must use a soft feminine touch to score in their trading pitches. One junior trader claimed that the boss, Ping Jiang, a key producer at the big hedge fund, demanded that the young trader take female hormone pills to help erase his aggressive male ways so he could be more effeminate in his trading style. Eventually, the hormones caused the junior trader to start wearing dresses, avoid his wife's touches altogether and allegedly begin a sexual relationship with his boss, the trader claims."

Bloomberg.com: News

Bloomberg.com: News: "Foreclosures Doubled in September as Loan Rates Rise (Update5) By Dan Levy Enlarge Image/Details Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home foreclosures doubled in September from a year earlier as subprime borrowers struggled to make payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, RealtyTrac Inc. said. There were 223,538 foreclosure filings last month, including default and auction notices and bank repossessions, an 8 percent decline from August. California had the most with 51,259 filings and Florida was second with 33,354. The national foreclosure rate was one for every 557 households. Foreclosures are deepening the U.S. housing recession by pushing more homes onto a market where sales and prices are dropping. There's a 10-month supply of unsold homes, the highest in at least eight years. As many as half of the 450,000 subprime borrowers whose mortgages will re-set through November may lose their homes because they can't afford the higher payments, according to a report by Credit Suisse Group. ``The truth of the matter is that borrowers are going into default as soon as they hit their adjustments,'' said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of marketing at Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac. The company sells foreclosure information and has a database of more than 1 million properties from 2,500 U.S. counties."

Bloomberg.com: Commodities

Bloomberg.com: Commodities: "Gold Rallies to 27-Year High, Silver Gains as Dollar Declines By Pham-Duy Nguyen Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to the highest price since 1980 as a decline in the value of the dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also gained. The price of gold has rallied 17 percent this year as the dollar touched an all-time low versus the euro. Five of the past six bear markets for the U.S. currency have led to gains in gold, which has more than doubled since 2002. ``Gold is gearing up for another rally,'' said Paul McLeod, vice president of the precious-metals department at Commerzbank Securities in New York. ``It's moving with the dollar, but it's also gathering its own momentum.'' Gold futures for December delivery rose $10.80, or 1.4 percent, to $756.80 an ounce at 1:36 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would be the biggest gain since Sept. 6. The metal earlier reached $759.30, the highest for a most-active contract since Jan. 22, 1980, the day after the price reached a record $873."

Two top US economists present scary scenarios for US economy; House prices in some areas may fall as much as 50% - Housing contraction threatens a bro

Two top US economists present scary scenarios for US economy; House prices in some areas may fall as much as 50% - Housing contraction threatens a broader recession: "US homes may lose as much as half their value in some US cities as the housing bust deepens, according to Yale University professor Robert Shiller. Meanwhile, Martin Feldstein of Harvard University says that experience suggests that the dramatic decline in residential construction provides an early warning of a coming recession. The likelihood of a recession is increased by what is happening in credit markets and in mortgage borrowing. Feldstein says that most of these forces are inadequately captured by the formal macroeconomic models used by the Federal Reserve and other macro forecasters. “The examples we have of past cycles indicate that major declines in real home prices — even 50 percent declines in some places — are entirely possible going forward from today or from the not too distant future,” Shiller said in a paper presented last Friday at the Federal Reserve Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming."

Six Reasons a Noted Economist Is Less Bullish - Markets - Economy - BSC

Six Reasons a Noted Economist Is Less Bullish - Markets - Economy - BSC: "Six Reasons a Noted Economist Is Less Bullish By Doug Kass RealMoney Silver Contributor 10/4/2007 12:38 PM EDT Click here for more stories by Doug Kass This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Oct. 4 at 8:12 a.m. EDT. The Most Read Stories From TheStreet.com 1. Navteq Deal Guts Garmin 2. Top Rocket Stocks for the Week of Oct. 1 3. Apple's Mac Shows Muscle 4. Top 10 Short-Squeeze Computer Stocks 5. High Bar Hits RIM Sign Up Free Trading Center Charles Schwab Zecco.com Fidelity Investments E*TRADE FINANCIAL Global Forex TD AMERITRADE As we all know, contrary (bearish) thinking has its limitations, as the crowd usually outsmarts the remnants. What is significant, though, is when a previously bullish observer turns more cautious -- or vice versa. Such was the case this week, as Bear Stearns (BSC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) Chief Economist David Malpass grew less bullish on the economy. Malpass has been with the brokerage house for almost 15 years. Prior to his association with the firm, he held a number of economic roles in the Reagan and Bush administrations. I have always found Malpass to be a force of reason. Malpass believes that the August credit seizure 'marked a major downward inflation point in growth p"

Blog about US housing

Here is a blog about US housing bubble:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3530