Double Warning That a Recession May Be on the Way

clipped from www.nytimes.com Off the Charts Double Warning That a Recession May Be on the Way By FLOYD NORRIS Published: September 15, 2007 THE employment statistics and the bond market are combining to send out a warning that has been heard only rarely in the past two decades: A recession is coming in the United States. The two charts show the double warning. Both charts warned of an economic downturn before the 1990 and 2001 recessions, and they are doing so again. While each has arguably registered false warnings, they have never done so together. The first chart shows the difference between the yield on two-year Treasuries and the Federal Reserve’s target rate for federal funds — the rate on loans between banks. In normal times, the Treasury rate is usually higher.